Modelling the Flow Duration Curve and Low Flow Indicators in Ungauged Watersheds of Ardabil Province

Babaey, Leyla (2020) Modelling the Flow Duration Curve and Low Flow Indicators in Ungauged Watersheds of Ardabil Province. Masters thesis, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili.

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Abstract

Research Aim: : The present study aimed to provide a general model for estimation of flow discharge at different exceedance of Flow Duration Curve in Ardabil province watersheds to estimate river flow discharge at ungauged stations. Research method: In this study, the physiographic, climatic and land use related variables were determined using ArcGIS and Excel software. In this regard, the normality test and factor analysis were carried out. The FDC of each river gauge station were drawn based on available data. In the next step, the regional flow duration curve models were obtained by using stepwise multivariate regression analysis. The linear models were examined which is the result of fitted dependent variable against independent variables with successive model selection procedure. The RMSE, coefficient of determination R2, MAE, and CE were used for model accuracy and assessment.. Findings: Regional FDC models were extracted through multivariate regression analysis and appropriate models were determined through statistical assessment. The most influential parameters on the modeled equations are slope, precipitation and elevation of the watersheds along with some influencing parameters in overall models. The accuracy of the derived models is obtained based on the acceptable values of statistical assessment criteria. Conclusion: effective variables in the final regional models for predictions of FDC indices were slope, precipitation, and elevation of the watersheds. In this regard, it can be said that with increasing slope, the flow rate will increase and also the precipitation and had an effective and direct relationship with the flow rate values at different percentages of flow duration curve.

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