Assess the consequences of climate change on phenological stages of apple trees in Urmia city

Ghaderzadeh, Arezu and Sobhani, Behrouz and Salahi, Boroumand (2015) Assess the consequences of climate change on phenological stages of apple trees in Urmia city. Masters thesis, university of Mohaghegh Ardabili.

Text (ارزیابی پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم بر مراحل فنوژلوژی درختان سیب شهرستان ارومیه) Arezu Ghaderzadeh.pdf Download (268kB)

Abstract

Today, Global Warming and its impact on various fields such as Agriculture, economy and energy has been of interest to researchers and one of the global warming effects of changes during the period of plant growth. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change and its effect on Phenological stages of Apple trees is the city of Urmia. Therefore, in this study, the occurrence of climate change for the base period (1988-2008) in the study area using Mann- Kendall test and Sen's Estimator Slope to Analyze trends in the temperature and precipitation was evaluated. The results showed that the average annual temperature has increased by as much as 3 degrees Celsius and the annual rainfall by 20 percent is decreasing. In order to assess the possible effects of climate change in the climatic parameters of Statistical downscaling methods were used LARS-WG software and climatic parameters minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours for the study area under three scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 atmospheric general circulation model HADCM3 on the horizon years 2011- 2030, 2046- 2065 and 2080- 2099 was simulated and predicted. Based on the results obtained in the city in the time period anticipated that under scenarios of rainfall distribution, will be decreased and the average temperature changes are predicted to increase in periods. To calculate the duration of the Apple tree's Phenological stages of GDD index and the climate parameters for each of the past and future growth in the period was compared. The results showed that the temperature has increased in the coming period and will continue until the end of 1409, As most of the variability of temperature at bud break and flowering can be seen, the trend is swinging and the sudden rise and fall will face, as well as the Changes sunshine is slight and subtle, as a result of changes in temperature and precipitation affect the apple crop. The assessment of climate change and the climate parameters can be set in relation to planting, water and temperature stresses (heat and cold) damage to the plants and the water requirement they have high functional aspects. Based on the results, falling flower, the flowering early, late spring frost damage to the blossoms and reduce irrigation water from the consequences of climate change in the region.

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