Prediction of Trade- Economic of Iran´s Agricultural Sector: The Combination of Econometrics and System Dynamics Methods

پیش‌بهار, اسماعیل and شهبازی, پریسا and حسین‌زاد, جواد Prediction of Trade- Economic of Iran´s Agricultural Sector: The Combination of Econometrics and System Dynamics Methods. In: 2nd International and 6th National Iranian Congress on Organic vs. Conventional Agriculture, August 2019, Ardabil, Iran.

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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to design a dynamic model for Trade- Economic of Iran´s Agricultural Sector to predict the future situation of this sector. By using the econometric method as simultaneous equations for demand, supply, import and export functions of the agricultural sector were estimated during the period of 1978-2016. Then, these functions are embedded in the system dynamics model in order to simulate the trade-economic situation of Iran´s Agricultural Sector during the period of 2016-2054. The results of simulation show that, during the next 38 years, the value of agricultural demand will increase until 2037, and from the beginning of 2038 until the end of the period, there will be a downward trend. The supply and export of agricultural sector will increase over the next 38 years. The agricultural Import will experience a lower rise, due to the dependence of the major part of Iranian´s agriculture import on; this could affect on the supply of agricultural products and threaten food security in the country. Therefore, it is suggested that the government and related organizations by using the results of this study, provides the essential supports from producers in this sector and provide the necessary measures to achieve self-sufficiency and food security.

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