Prediction of Production and Labor of Iran´s Agricultural Sector: The Combination of Econometrics and System Dynamics Methods

شهبازی, پریسا and پیش‌بهار, اسماعیل and حسین‌زاد, جواد Prediction of Production and Labor of Iran´s Agricultural Sector: The Combination of Econometrics and System Dynamics Methods. In: 2nd International and 6th National Iranian Congress on Organic vs. Conventional Agriculture, August 2019, Ardabil, Iran.

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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to design a dynamic model for prediction of production and labor in Iran's agricultural sector. By using the econometric method, the Agricultural production function was estimated during the period of 1978-2016. Then, these functions are embedded in the system dynamics model in order to simulate the population, production and labor of Iran's agricultural sector during the period of 2016-2054. The results of simulation show that, during the next 38 years, the trend of the value of agricultural sector will be proportional to the Population Changing Procedure. It is predicted that the total population will have a upward trend until 2044 and then, it will be decreasing until the end of the end of the simulation. As for the low population growth rate, the Agricultural labor has a ascending trend until 2036. Also, due to the aging of the labor and its shortage in the agricultural sector, until 2045, the trend will increase and after that, it will have a downward trend. In summary, the results of this study show that the combination of econometrics and system dynamics, provides logical results for policy makers' responses.

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