Forecasting Energy Consumption in Agricultural Sector of Iran

پاکروح, پریسا and علی‌پور, مینا Forecasting Energy Consumption in Agricultural Sector of Iran. In: 2nd International and 6th National Iranian Congress on Organic vs. Conventional Agriculture, August 2019, Ardabil, Iran.

Text BC-00028-AB.pdf Download (616kB)

Abstract

The agricultural sector as one of economical sector, provide most important food and non-food economical value productions. Agricultural activities require energy such as fossil fuels, which are considered as inputs in agriculture; therefore, the role of this sector in greenhouse gas emissions is not undeniable, so, investigation the trends of energy consumption is needed to manage energy demand and reduce pollutants in this sector. Hence, in this paper, we forecast the consumption of energy types (oil products and electricity) in the agricultural sector by using the ARIMA and ARFIMA models. Consumption data of 1978-2016 years have been used for estimation and prediction did for the 2017-2032. The results showed that oil products do not have long-term memory, but the electricity have long-term memory. Based on the results of selected models for each energy, the trend of oil products consumption in the forecast years is decreasing and the consumption of electricity in the forecasting years will be upward over time. Considering the increasing trend of electricity consumption in this sector, appropriate policies proposed.

Actions (login required)

View Item