Index of economic efficiency and the rate of replacement of dairy herds using computer simulations of Ardabil Province

Zarevalimohammadi, Mahdi (2017) Index of economic efficiency and the rate of replacement of dairy herds using computer simulations of Ardabil Province. Masters thesis, university of Mohaghegh Ardabili.

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Text (تعیین شاخص بهره¬وری اقتصادی و نرخ جایگزینی گله¬های شیری استان اردبیل با استفاده از شبیه¬سازی رایانه¬ای) Mahdi Zarevalimohammadi.pdf Download (446kB) | Preview

Abstract

The object of this study was to Determine the economic productivity and replacement rate of dairy herds of Ardabil province using computer simulations based on data collected from 13000 dairy cattle based on market conditions in 2014. One of the most important management decisions affecting livestock profit is determining the timing of the productivity and timely replacement of dairy cattle with young heifers. In this research, using the system analysis method, the economic system of the herd of dairy cattle was decomposed into income and cost components and each of these components was subdivided into other sub-sectors. Then, by using existing models and using Comexon toolkit, the MATLAB programming language was applied to simulate a bioeconomic model. Considering the revenues and expenses, using the simulation method, the effect of changes in each of the parameters of the model, ie, the effects of changes in the price of dry matter of forage, the change in the price of dry matter of the concentrate, the change in feed costs, the maturity, the average life span, income Milk, Total Income, Milk Prices and ... were reviewed. The increase in the prices of forage and concentrates and non-food costs reduces the productivity index, and the increase in milk production and milk prices by the government rate has a positive effect on the productivity index. And the average flock lifetime is a function of annual percentage removal and replacement and remains constant until the herd composition is constant. The average life-span of the year is based on the number of cows divided by number of heifers replaced in the year. The application of an optimal replacement and removal strategy with the age of optimum age leads to increased profitability of the dairy unit. Increasing the optimal lifetime will increase the opportunity for optional removal, thereby increasing the selectivity and reducing the annual replacement cost per head of the cow per year and increasing the average production of the herd by increasing the proportion of cattle production at higher age levels. The average life span of the herd in this study was 4.83 years, which was affected by the heifer price, the discount factor and the price of milk. The price of structures such as milk, cattle, and heifers affect the livestock's decision to keep or remove a cow from herds. The early removal of a cow due to the fact that its initial investment does not compensate for the loss of economic benefits to the livestock breeder, and the removal of the later than the appropriate time would reduce the profitability of the herd and replace the replacement of a genetic trap Prevents higher production capacity and higher. Therefore, it is important to determine the optimal life span of the herd.

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