Statistical Analysis and Predicting Incident Probability of Stormy and Strong Winds in Ardabil province

Ahmadi shamsabad, Maryam (2017) Statistical Analysis and Predicting Incident Probability of Stormy and Strong Winds in Ardabil province. Masters thesis, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili.

Text (تحلیل آماری و پیش‌بینی احتمال وقوع بادهای شدید و توفانی استان اردبیل) Maryam Ahmadi shamsabad.pdf Download (363kB)

Abstract

In all over the globe, there are disasters that threaten human being’s life and property. Among them, storm is one of the most dangerous disasters and it has weather origin. In order to statistical analysis and predict the probability of strong winds and stormy occurrence in Ardabil province in the Partial series, the daily maximum wind speed and direction data of Ardabil, Meshkinshahr, khalkhal and Parsabad Synoptic stations in the period of 16 years (2000 - 2015) were used. In this way, the base speed is selected in such a way that the most sever winds have occurred per year on average between 3 to 5 times. Therefore, basic wind speed was determined 21 m/s for Ardabil and Meshkinshahr stations, and 15 m/s for Khalkhal and Parsabad stations. The accuracy and homogeneity of data was determined by Run Test. The review of the frequency of storm days during the statistical period, represents that Meshkinshahr station with 79 days, and Khalkhal station with 50 days, have the most and the least frequent windy days, respectively. The maximum rate observed was 45 m/s for Meshkinshahr station. According to the seasonal storm review, winter was the most active hurricane in Ardabil and Meshkinshahr stations, and summer in Ardabil, didn’t have stormy day and it was the low storm season in Meshkinshahr station. Spring in Parsabad station and spring and summer in Khalkhal station, was the most active hurricane, and autumn was the least active hurricane season in these two stations. Annual and seasonal wind rose by WRPLOT software showed that the direction of strong and stormy winds of the area in under studied stations is different. The results, predict the probability of strong winds and stormy occurrence for these stations in the course of different return. The probability of the fastest storm in a return period of 100 years in Meshkinshahr station, is predicted 48/80 m/s. Moreover, the probability of strong wind occurrence with the speed higher than 15/99 m/s in the return of 1 year in the mentioned stations is closed to 100 percent. Keywords: Ardabil province, Natural hazards, Partial series, Strong winds.

Actions (login required)

View Item