The consequences of the climate change scenario on wheat cultivation around Mount Sabalan using the LARS-WG model

Kokab Bakht, Nasir (2017) The consequences of the climate change scenario on wheat cultivation around Mount Sabalan using the LARS-WG model. Masters thesis, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili.

Text (پیامدهای سناریوی تغییر آب‌ و هوا برکشت گندم در اطراف کوه سبلان با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG) Nasir Kokab Bakht.pdf Download (359kB)

Abstract

Climate change is an undeniable fact of human life today, and its effects worldwide are seen as increasing temperature and changing the pattern of rainfall. These changes also affect the agricultural sector, including increasing the temperature, increasing the evaporation and transpiration of the plant and encountering the plant with water stress during the growing season. In this study, the effects of climate change on wheat growth in the Sabalan range were studied using LARS-WG software. Meteorological data was collected from the country's meteorological organization. After verifying and constructing different scenarios, it was introduced into SPSS software. The data obtained from the Meteorological Organization were correlated and the scenario with more true correlation was accepted as a research scenario. Using the LARS model, data were generated for two periods from 2016 to 2045 and 2046 to 2065. The result of this data generation was a rise in temperature and a decrease in precipitation at the stations studied. The products of this model, which include minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall and sun hours, are included in the GROPWAT model. This model estimates the evapotranspiration and water requirement of wheat in future periods, which results in an increase in evapotranspiration and the need for blue wheat in Showed upcoming courses According to the estimation of the GROPWAT model in the future, wheat will be exposed to water stress in the studied area. Due to the fact that the rainfall is also reduced, the productivity of this plant, especially in farms, is reduced and even the possibility of drying will not be possible. Between the stations, During the period from 2046 to 2065 precipitation in the Sarab station is reduced by 13%, and as a result, evaporation and transpiration increased by 67% during this period, and consequently the need for irrigation increased by 92% so that it could be cultivated in the future Wild wheat will not be possible in this area.. Keywords: Evapotranspiration, Climate Change, Wheat, Sabalan Mountain, GROPWAT Model, LARS-WG Model

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